Threats and Harms Made in America
As is so often the case, American military moves in West Asia were ominous:
And the data over the past month seems to confirm American claims of successfully routing around the Iranian blockade of the Strait:
The sanctions are having other pernicious effects as well, per the FT:
Iranian pharmacists have warned of a worsening shortage of medicines as the US war and blockade complicate the country’s ability to import and pay for medical drugs.
While the country of 90mn produces most of its own medication domestically, it relies on imports of ingredients from countries including India and buys medicines and vaccines from Europe and elsewhere.
But ministers have acknowledged in recent weeks that securing those supplies has become increasingly difficult.The US has for months blockaded Iran’s southern ports, the main corridor for the country’s medicine imports, while a growing number of international flights — on which they are also brought in — have been cancelled because of American sanctions on airline service providers in third countries.
Several pharmaceutical factories were also hit directly or indirectly at the height of the US-Israeli bombing campaign, officials said. All this has forced Tehran to tap strategic reserves of medicine and look for alternative overland routes for imports, officials said.
Hadi Ahmadi, a spokesperson for the Iranian Pharmacists Association, said about 60 medicines used for life-threatening diseases, such as for the blood disorder thalassaemia, were in short supply.
Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz saw something coming, posting before Trump announced no ceasefire:
What happens the day after Washington says no?
Iranian leaders are also reading the American political calendar. They understand that a major escalation before the midterms could impose significant political and economic costs on the administration, particularly through higher oil and gasoline prices. Trump himself has publicly acknowledged the connection between the Iran conflict, energy prices and the midterm timetable.
If Tehran concludes that Washington wants to avoid a broader confrontation before November, it may decide that escalation, rather than compromise, offers the better path to leverage. The question then becomes whether Iran would move beyond absorbing the economic pressure of the U.S. blockade and take new steps to impose costs on Washington and the global economy, particularly around maritime traffic and energy flows.
The Strait of Hormuz has already become one of Tehran’s principal sources of leverage. Recent negotiations have centered precisely on the tradeoff between reopening the strait and easing the U.S. blockade.
So the administration should evaluate the Iranian proposal against two scenarios, not one. The first is the cost and strategic consequence of accepting a deal that largely revives the previous framework. The second is the likely Iranian response if Washington rejects it.
The real policy question is therefore not only whether Iran’s offer is acceptable. It is whether Washington has a credible strategy for what comes next if it is not.
Fire In the Hormuz
BREAKING: Iran has launched anti-ship missiles from Sirik in southern Iran toward vessels under US escort in the US-backed southern Omani corridor of the Strait of Hormuz, with several large-scale explosions heard in the Strait over the past hour and at least one oil tanker confirmed hit, per initial reports.
Local sources say “a serious naval conflict” is ongoing tonight. The explosions in the past few hours are in the double digits, with further explosions minutes ago around Qeshm Island.
BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC has substantially escalated its targeting of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the past hours, launching anti-ship cruise missiles and drones while fast-attack boats engage tankers with guided rockets, machine guns and small arms, per initial reports and a senior Iranian source.
At least 3 vessels have been struck and a 4th has turned around, with a second source putting the number struck tonight at up to 6.
BREAKING: Iran is laying naval mines in the US-backed southern Omani corridor of the Strait of Hormuz tonight. At least some of the 10+ missiles fired so far carried mines, per initial reports and a senior Iranian source.
