Iran War: Narrative Dissolution as Ceasefire Continues Except in Lebanon
A distracted MSM is letting the Iran War narrative dissolve into several related streams as the ceasefire continues
A western media distracted by Saturday night’s alleged attack on Trump is letting the Iran War narrative dissolve into several related streams as the ceasefire continues, except in Lebanon and the high seas.
Trump’s Lie Du Jour
I’m not going to waste a lot of time on his latest nonsense.
This should be self-refuting but Trump deadenders and Mr Market will follow him anywhere (well, Mr Market might change his mind when earnings reports start dropping).
Axios Always Down to Pump the Markets for Trump
This tells me that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s desperate efforts to manipulate markets at all costs to keep oil futures below $100/barrel (bbl) have failed.
Therefore, topline should go to this pathetic attempt to fluff Mr Market going into Monday morning via Axios:
Bianco points out that this tweet had already been out for hours, debunking the claims of negotiation from the Trump admin:
Feeble. The big problem with a completely overvalued market bending is it may break violently should the collective delusions of Mr Market shatter.
And now with the kino.
Lebanon Can’t Catch a Break
Bibi Netanyahu tells the Times of Israel that it’s all Hezbollah’s fault:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Hezbollah’s actions are threatening the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, as he pledges to “vigorously” target the Iran-backed terror group.
“It must be understood that Hezbollah’s violations are, in practice, dismantling the ceasefire,” Netanyahu says during the weekly cabinet meeting.
“We are acting vigorously in accordance with arrangements agreed with the United States and, incidentally, also with Lebanon,” Netanyahu says.
“This means freedom of action not only to respond to attacks, which is obvious, but also to preempt immediate threats and even emerging threats.”
And when Bibi talks, the Israeli military attacks, via Arab News:
Lebanon’s National News Agency reported on Sunday an airstrike hit the town of Kfar Tebnit in southern Lebanon, following a warning from the Israeli army to evacuate it along with six other villages, in what it said was a response to Hezbollah’s violation of an ongoing ceasefire agreement.
The health ministry in a statement said 14 people had been killed in the attacks, and that the dead included two women and two children, adding that 37 other people were wounded.
Earlier, the National News Agency reported that “Israeli warplanes launched a raid on the roundabout of the town of Kfar Tebnit,” resulting in “injuries.”
Israel’s military ordered residents to leave seven towns that lie beyond the “buffer zone” it occupied before a ceasefire that has failed to bring a full halt to hostilities.
A spokesperson for the Israeli military said in a statement on X that Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was violating the ceasefire and that Israel would act against it, telling people to head north and west away from the towns.
The towns are north of the Litani River and the zone in southern Lebanon occupied by Israeli troops, who have continued military operations despite the ceasefire.
Hezbollah put out a statement in response, at Al Mayadeen:
Today, the criminal “israeli” enemy prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, claimed that “Hezbollah is the one undermining the ceasefire”, and that the enemy has the right to “freedom of action” in Lebanon “according to the agreement with the United States of America and Lebanon”. Hezbollah condemns Netanyahu’s statements and warns strongly of their extreme danger, as they attempt to implicate the Lebanese authorities in a bilateral agreement that occurred only between him and Washington, in which Lebanon had no say or position, and therefore did not approve. From here, Hezbollah emphasizes the following:
The Resistance’s continued targeting of “israeli” enemy gatherings on our land which it occupies, and its shelling of enemy settlements in northern occupied Palestine, is a legitimate response to its continuous violations of the ceasefire since the first day the temporary truce was announced. These violations have exceeded 500 on land, at sea, and in the air, including shelling, demolition, and destruction of homes, leading to the fall of dozens of martyrs and wounded from our steadfast people.
Hezbollah’s statement goes on for several more paragraphs and can be read in full at Al Mayadeen.
Hezbollah also took kinetic steps per Geopolitiq:
Hezbollah responded to Israeli attacks with 4 military operations today, as reported by MES (see also Al Mayadeen):
Targeting a gathering of Israeli soldiers in Al-Tayybeh with an FPV drone, inflicting confirmed casualties (see also RNN Mirror).
Targeting a second IDF force that came to evacuate the previously wounded soldiers, also in the town of Al-Tayybeh, with an FPV drone and inflicting confirmed casualties (see also RNN Mirror).
Targeting an Israeli artillery emplacement in the town of Al-Bayadeh with a swarm of suicide drones (see also RNN Mirror).
Targeting an Israeli ‘Merkava’ tank in the town square of Al-Tayybeh with two FPV drones, scoring direct hits (see also RNN Mirror).
The first two military operations resulted in the wounding of 6 Israeli soldiers and the killing of Sergeant Idan Fooks, 19 years old, from Petah Tikva, a fighter in the 77th Battalion, ‘Sa’ar Megolan’(7th) Brigade, as reported by Al Mayadeen and MES (1 and 2), citing the Israeli Army Radio, according to which “an Israeli tank belonging to the Golani Brigade broke down in the town of Al-Tayybeh, and Hezbollah launched an FPV drone at it, killing 1 of the engineers and wounding six others. A rescue force with a helicopter then came to evacuate the wounded force, and one additional Hezbollah FPV drone impacted just meters away from the helicopter, while another drone was shot down just before impact”. Here is Hezbollah’s footage of its drone attack targeting the IDF rescue force with an FPV drone in Al-Tayybeh (from MES):
Amit Segal of Israeli Channel 12 makes some telling claims about the help Syria’s new regime is providing as they attack Hezbollah:
…to fully strangle the organization, Israel needs—and has received—the help of another pair of hands: those belonging to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
In the eighteen months since his ascent to power, al-Sharaa has been guided by one instinct: survival. In the “New Syria,” that survival is defined by three pillars: centralization of power, international legitimacy and a desperate need for financial rehabilitation. These interests have converged into a singular, pragmatic mission: the expulsion of Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, from Syrian soil. In a recent visit to the Chatham House research institute in London, al-Sharaa stated that Syria “paid a heavy price for Hezbollah’s involvement” and that his duty now is to “cut the lifeline” of the organization passing through his territory.
And let’s not forget Gaza, where the murder machine funded and armed by American tax payers never sleeps, via Drop Site News:
Israeli forces killed at least seven Palestinians Sunday in a series of strikes across Gaza, according to Palestine Online, citing Civil Defense and local sources.
3 were killed near Kuwait Roundabout and the Al-Saqa Mosque in the town of Al-Mughraqa, south of Gaza City — identified as Mohammad Ziad Al-Ashqar, Mohammad Riyad Al-Ashqar, and Mahmoud Saleh Jaber.
Two others were killed by an Israeli drone strike targeting a civilian gathering south of Gaza City.
A displaced woman, Huda Al-Attar, 40, was shot and killed by Israeli forces south of Khan Younis.
A seventh, Rami Ramzi Ghabn, died of wounds sustained in a Saturday strike on the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood north of Gaza City.
Israeli forces also carried out bulldozing and demolition operations targeting civilian structures and educational facilities in southern Khan Younis, alongside naval and aerial strikes on western and eastern Gaza. An Israeli helicopter opened heavy fire on the Bureij refugee camp, and artillery shelled its northeastern edge before dawn.
Next we’ll look at the other front where some action is happening, the oceans vast.
We’re Blockading You, No, We’re Blockading You
Centcom bragged about bagging some ships Saturday:
Tanker Trackers had details that undercut CENTCOM’s narrative:
Sal Mercogliano has some analysis.
Sal Mercogliano: The US is boarding and seizing stateless tankers much as they did with the Venezuelan tankers.
Yes, they have boarded one Iranian ship, but that seems to have been the example. The rest of them are being turned and herded around toward anchorages. They don’t want to seem to attack, board, and get into a direct confrontation with the Iranians.
Instead, it is much easier and legal, by the way, to board stateless vessels and take them.
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US forces continue to enforce US sanctions fully implement the blockade against ships or entering or departing Iranian ports. 37 vessels have been redirected since the start of the blockade.
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We have ships loading at Kharg Island, 6 million barrels of three tankers there.The Iranians are moving a dead tanker up to that area to provide storage.
However, what we’re seeing is Iranian tankers turned around and herded back into the port of Chahar.
A series of tankers that were turned around and put back in there by the United States. This is imagery posted by tanker trackers on April 23rd.
They identified nine Iranian tankers in Chapahar. There were five on April 21st.
Now let’s talk about those elusive negotiations and how they’re seen in western corporate media.
MSM Beginning to Catch On
Now that the Iran War is no longer THE ONE BIG STORY that the MSM is obsessed with, a little bit of honesty is leaking into the narrative.
And while that’s going on in the west, in the rest of the world diplomats are negotiating, just without Kushner and Witkoff.
Negotiations Are Being Conducted, Just Without the US
The Iranian Foreign Minister seemingly trolled POTUS Trump by dropping back by Islamabad, via CNBC:
Abbas Araghchi had left Pakistan’s capital late the previous day, creating confusion around an expected second round of talks there, but he returned before continuing on to Moscow on Sunday, Iranian state media said. He had been in Oman, which previously mediated talks and is on the other side of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
The White House last week said it would dispatch envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad to follow up on historic face-to-face talks earlier this month. But shortly after Araghchi’s departure Saturday, Trump said he had called off the mission because of a lack of progress with Iran.
“If they want, we can talk but we’re not sending people,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. He said earlier on social media: “All they have to do is call!!!”
Janta Ka described Araghchi’s antics as:
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi today returned to Pakistan from Muscat after learning about Trump’s decision to not send (Kushner and Witkoff) for diplomatic talks.
The Iranians are really aware. They really know how to play around with Trump. Araghchi left for Muscat, Oman, when Trump announced his plans to send his delegation to Pakistan.
And as soon as Trump cancelled or was forced to cancel his plans following the snubbing by Iran, Araghchi returned back to Islamabad.
This is like a classic case of a decent person avoiding a jilted stalker.
Pakistani journalist Kamran Yousaf on X offered a more optimistic analysis about what Araghchi is up to with his global galavanting:
SOME KEY DEVELOPMENTS
As things stand, slowly but quietly, a “mega deal,” not just involving the principal parties (Iran & the US), but several regional players and beyond, is in the making.
The likely deal between Iran and the US will not only reflect their concerns and demands, but also those of other stakeholders.
A flurry of diplomatic activities over the past 48 hours suggests a serious push to end the Iran-US war permanently.
Besides Pakistan, several other countries, including Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, to name a few, are working in tandem to thrash out a deal acceptable to everyone.
The Iranian Foreign Minister spoke to his Saudi counterpart on his way back from Oman to Islamabad.
While most are focused on Trump’s bluster, the real work is being done quietly and efficiently.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor “Lil” Marco Rubio made an usual diplomatic call today to the UAE, unusual in that Rubio appears to have no diplomatic role in the Trump administration despite his nominal portfolio:
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed discusses, during a phone call with His Excellency Marco Rubio, the United States Secretary of State, the growing strategic relations between 🇺🇸-🇦🇪, and the overall current regional developments. His Highness also commended the efforts of U.S. President Donald Trump aimed at achieving peace and consolidating sustainable security and stability at both the regional and international levels, and similarly commended the efforts of the U.S. President and Marco Rubio in bringing about peace between Lebanon and Israel.
The UAE or their Israeli pals also gave the faithful lapdogs at Axios a “scoop”:
Israel sent the United Arab Emirates an Iron Dome air defense system with troops to operate it early in the war with Iran, two Israeli officials and one U.S. official tell Axios.
The military, security and intelligence cooperation between Israel and the UAE has reached new heights during the war. The unprecedented deployment of the Iron Dome system during the war was not previously made public.
Now let’s turn our attention to some internal Israeli dynamics.
New Anti-Netanyahu Coalition Forms
The centrist leader of Israel’s opposition, Yair Lapid, and a right-wing former prime minister, Naftali Bennett, announced on Sunday that they would combine forces in elections later this year. The merger is an apparent bid to reconstitute a partnership that temporarily unseated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu five years ago.
Mr. Bennett and Mr. Lapid said their two parties, Bennett 2026 and Yesh Atid, would unite into a party to be called Yachad, Hebrew for “together,” under Mr. Bennett’s leadership.
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Support for Mr. Lapid, who is broadly viewed as weak on national security, has been flagging. Mr. Bennett, who sat out the last election and is not currently a member of Parliament, has been broadcasting a message of national unity and pragmatism. Together, they hope to appeal to the broadest possible range of the Israeli electorate, from the liberal center-left to moderate right-wingers.In a nod to the right, Mr. Bennett said on Sunday that a government he led would “not hand over a centimeter” of territory “to the enemy.” In their opening statements, both men avoided other contentious issues, such as the surge of settler violence in the occupied West Bank and the future of Gaza.
By joining forces, the pair increase their prospects of overtaking Likud in the election, which is slated to take place in October at the latest.
About that Petrodollar
Brendan Greeley wrote “There’s no such thing as the petrodollar” for the Financial Times (archived):
Currencies aren’t just vibes, powerful in some general sense because countries are. The global market for eurodollars works in specific ways that we can understand. Most significantly, the Federal Reserve has made clear that it will protect eurodollars in a crisis. The Fed maintains swap lines with a few trusted central banks. It swaps dollars on its own balance sheet, temporarily, for euros or yen on theirs. In turn, those central banks can lend dollars to their own commercial banks if their own eurodollars start to look questionable. The Fed does this because a global banking collapse would be bad for Americans, too, but it’s not hard to see why the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank appreciate the favour.
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The global dollar system was not set in motion by a single diplomatic coup — oil for dollars. It was invented quietly by private actors, then endorsed and protected by the US. America didn’t just push its dollar out into the world. It found dollars in London, then decided to protect them. If there’s any threat to the global dollar system, this is where it will show up, in America’s willingness to support dollars created abroad that it doesn’t otherwise regulate.As the Trump administration continues to haggle and embargo and improvise in the Strait of Hormuz, the US may be losing power as an empire. But a currency is not the same thing as a country. America extends a financial security umbrella to dollars created abroad. Should it ever become clear that the Fed is not willing to extend the diplomatic generosity of its swap lines — that’s when it would be time to worry.
Some Military Analysis
Couple of pieces worth the attention of those analyzing the kino:
Missile Issues Limit Iran, Yet It Still Holds the Cards Global 21/Patricia Marins
The US War Machine Underwhelms – part 2 by Hua Bin
Around the YouTubes
Eurodollar University’s Jeff Snider and guest Steve Van Metre tells how:
back in April 2020, oil prices went negative after the futures market underestimated just how much demand had collapsed, causing chaos as market participants scrambled to unload their oil.
Here in April 2026, the oil futures market is in danger of something similar but in the opposite direction. Certain market participants just may be underestimating how much supply has collapsed.
Worrying that might be the case, the Dallas Fed surveyed oil industry companies about what they’re seeing and where they think the Hormuz blockage is leading the energy marketplace. You’re not going to like it.
I’m sharing this one because Johnson, the sole source of claims that Trump had tried to access the nuclear codes and been denied by his generals a week or so ago is making more claims about military resistance to Trump’s orders.
Johnson, a retired CIA analyst, has many sources in the military, but one should take these kind of claims with sufficient salt — leaks and rumors coming from ex-intel operatives are interesting but the signal to noise ratio varies.
Nonetheless, popular X.com poster Furkan Gözükara shared a clip from the show with his quarter of a million followers and described it as such:
Massive bombshell. Former CIA Officer Larry Johnson confirms top US military commanders are actively refusing orders from the Trump administration to attack Iran. The Pentagon brass knows it will create a massive disaster. A full military revolt is brewing in Washington.
On a more substantive tip, Dimitri Lascaris speaks to the Yemeni Foreign Minister, Abdulwahid Abu Ras.
Abu Ras talks some serious (and well-earned) smack when asked why he thought the USS George W. Bush had avoided the Red Sea and instead sailed around the Cape of Good Hope to reach the Indian Ocean instead.
Abdulwahid Abu Ras: “When this aggression began (against Iran), Yemen declared that the Red Sea would not be used for aggression against Iran. Therefore the American side avoided the Red Sea.
They know from previous rounds. There were periods of engagement. Yemen engaged in solo combat against American aircraft carriers and more than one aircraft carrier left this region as a result of these clashes.
The Yemeni armed forces showed they had the preparation and the will. Consequently, the American side tried to avoid this engagement at this specific stage especially as it still suffers from an inability to confront Iranian missiles and drones.
Let’s close with some yuks.
Stay safe, y’all.
Originally published at NakedCapitalism on April 27, 2026.