Iran War: Fraying Nerves, Nonsense Negotiations, Psyops, and Ominous Notes
POTUS Trump and the Iranians are locked in a high tension stand off and the pressure on everyone is building...
POTUS Trump and the Iranians are locked in a high tension stand off and the pressure on everyone is building like divers trapped in a bell that’s springing leaks as it descends into the abyss.
And the hallucinations and delusions are building as bubbles form in the bloodstream and the brain.
Let’s start with the Lord of Misrule himself.
Who’s Trump Trying to Fool With His Truths?
The evil dotard has been verbose and very creative on his proprietary anti-social media platform.
I’d like to tune him out, but as rumors started by retired CIA analysts keep reminding us, Trump’s got the keys to the kingdom, his hand’s on the seventh seal, that is, he’s got the nuclear codes.
Besides, this is Mad King Trump’s climactic act, if not his last (although it may be that too), let’s hear what sound and fury, what hideous deceitful whispers pass his lips.
Here’s a gem of a post:
This was preceded by a longer post that I’ll paste in as text:
The Democrats are doing everything possible to hurt the very strong position we are in with respect to Iran. Despite World War I lasting 4 years, 3 months, and 14 days, World War II lasting 6 years and 1 day, the Korean War lasting 3 years, 1 month, and 2 days, the Vietnam War lasting 19 years, 5 months, and 29 days, and Iraq lasting 8 years, 8 months, and 28 days, they like to say that I promised 6 weeks to defeat Iran, and actually, from the Military standpoint, it was far faster than that, but I’m not going to let them rush the United States into making a Deal that is not as good as it could have been. I read the Fake News saying that I am under “pressure” to make a Deal. THIS IS NOT TRUE! I am under no pressure whatsoever, although, it will all happen, relatively quickly! Time is not my adversary, the only thing that matters is that we finally, after 47 years, straighten out the MESS that other Presidents let happen because they didn’t have the Courage or Foresight to do what had to be done with respect to Iran. We’re in it, and it will be done RIGHT, and we won’t let the Weak and Pathetic Democrats, TRAITORS ALL, who for years have been talking about the Dangers of Iran, and that something has to be done, but now, since I’m the one doing it, belittle the accomplishments of our Military and the Trump Administration. This is being perfectly executed, on the scale of Venezuela, just a bigger, more complex operation. The result will be the same. In my First Term, I built the Greatest Military our Country has ever seen, including adding Space Force. In my Second Term, I am properly and judiciously using our Military to solve problems left to us by others of far less understanding or competence. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump also did some interviews, here’s some of what he told PBS News,
PBS News: What happens if the ceasefire expires tomorrow evening?
Trump: Then lots of bombs start going off.
PBS: Is Iran still participating in the talks that will be happening in Islamabad? Will they still be there?
Trump: I don’t know. I mean, they’re supposed to be there. We agreed to be there, although they say we didn’t. But no, it was set up. And we’ll see whether or not it’s there. If they’re not there, that’s fine too.
PBS: What do you want from the negotiating team in Islamabad?
Trump: No nuclear weapons. Very simple. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Very simple.
US President Donald Trump said he’s not likely to extend the two-week ceasefire with Iran, which expires on “Wednesday evening Washington time”.
Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz would stay blockaded for now, saying “the Iranians desperately want it opened” but he’s “not opening it until a deal is signed”.
Now that we know what we don’t know, which is what % of Trump’s blather is deliberate lies and what is delusional fantasy, let’s check in on those attempting to weave a consensus reality conventional narrative about the negotiations.
Talks? Who’s Talking?
Looks like it won’t be Iran, not in Islamabad, Pakistan anyhow, per Al Jazeera:
Iran has signalled that it has no plans to send negotiators to Islamabad for a new round of talks with the United States, threatening Pakistan’s plans for multiday negotiations between the warring nations less than 48 hours before a fragile ceasefire is set to expire.
Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday Washington had “violated the ceasefire from the beginning of its implementation”, citing the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 13, and the overnight capture of an Iranian container ship by the US military as breaches of the truce as well as international law.
He warned that if the US and Israel launched aggression again, Iranian forces “will respond accordingly”, while reaffirming that Tehran’s 10-point proposal, submitted before the first round of Islamabad talks, remained its basis for any negotiation.
“The US is not learning its lessons from experience,” Baghaei said, “and this will never lead to good results.”
Are Trump’s Lies Creating Divisions in Iran?
Patricia Marins has an interesting essay at Global 21 speculating to that effect:
It is necessary to examine the Iranian negotiators’ position very carefully, as well as how the markets and the lives of billions of people react to every statement or silence from them. First and foremost, it is important to remember: in this scenario, there is no concrete proof of anything. Everything is assessed through behaviors, actions, and outcomes that raise suspicions that an operation of this kind is underway, and today it certainly is.
Notice how often it leaks to the international media and social media channels that Iran “is very close to an agreement.” However, when you look at the leaked terms, they are selective and do not match the main negotiating agenda. This information reaches the Iranian command, which immediately asks the negotiators if it is true. Imagine the level of nervousness during a period of war. This tactic is classic and widely used.
Another clear strategy worth observing is the talks in Islamabad. Trump’s delegation, led by JD Vance, adopts a respectful and even cordial tone with the Araghchi and Ghalibaf, while maintaining a harsh rhetoric of “annihilation” against the IRGC. This creates the public perception that there are two paths: Prosperity alongside the politicians and destruction alongside the military. Publicly, this forces Iranian politicians to try to demonstrate control over the military, control that, in practice, they do not actually have, generating internal friction.
The US imposes extremely heavy sanctions on companies linked to the IRGC, but at the same time signals that it could ease restrictions on economic sectors defended by the Parliament. Once again, the goal is to create division.
Trump often publicly praises the intelligence of certain Iranian negotiators. For a negotiator in wartime, receiving a public compliment from Trump is almost a shot in the foot. And so the psychological war advances, step by step.
To be clear, Marins has no sources inside Iran, but she is laying out a plausible scenario, one that almost seems inevitable, but don’t mistake it for intel about what actually *IS* happening in Iran.
I’m just sharing it to help readers put themselves in the headspace of the Iranian side as they try to negotiate with a con man turned demented loon.
So the Mad King may have already cracked, leaving gray matter leaking out like stuffing from his ears, but the Iranians might be disoriented from paying attention to what’s coming out of his mouth.
But What’s Broken, Trump?
If he’s so dangerous to anyone paying mind to his prattle, what’s on his mind?
Well, there are his ever-worsening polling numbers from NBC and Survey Monkey (that is, if Susie Wiles lets him see these numbers), cited by The Hill:
The decline in Americans who strongly approve of Trump’s job in office accounts for most of his falling approval rating — 20 percent strongly approve of the president, down from 26 percent one year ago. Meanwhile, the share who “somewhat approve” of the president dipped from 19 percent in last April to 17 percent today.
Similarly, those who say they “strongly disapprove” have been steadily on the rise — now accounting for 50 percent of all respondents, up from 42 percent last April. Meanwhile, 13 percent “somewhat disapprove” of Trump in the latest poll — the same finding from the April 2025 survey.
If they’re not letting Trump in the Situation Room at key moments, it’s unlikely that he’s getting detailed reports about ship movements out of Iran.
Blockades and Fleets and What Not
It seems very unlikely that anyone from the US Navy is giving him numbers like what Lloyd’s List is reporting about his vaunted blockade:
At least 26 Iranian shadow fleet vessels bypass US blockade
More than 10 vessels have transited past the US blockade line since the terms were expanded last week
Eleven tankers laden with Iranian cargo have left the Gulf of Oman or Middle East Gulf since April 13
A Greek-owned bulker left an Iranian port on April 15 and passed the blockade line on April 19
That’s the free preview, I don’t have access to the full report, nor can I vouch for the accuracy of the report, but Lloyd’s was a trusted source before a recent private equity acquisition. Perhaps it can still be vouchsafed.
Also the US Navy simply does not have sufficient assets deployed to enforce a tight blockade of the Gulf of Oman so this would gibe with logical expectations.
Rest assured Trump isn’t being informed of the economic fundamentals.
Oil’s Breaking Point?
HFI Research has a new report called “The Oil Market Breaking Point Is Here” that got exposed to over 900,000 people on X via Qasem Al-Ali.
Al-Ali summarized the report elegantly:
Even if a ceasefire is signed TODAY:
— Floating tankers need 30–40 days to offload
— VLCCs rerouted to the US need 3+ months to return
— Onshore ME storage needs to drain ~200M bbls first
The supply gap doesn’t care about peace dealsCumulative storage lost from Hormuz closure:
End of April → 1.2 billion bbls
End of May → 1.59 billion bbls
End of June → 1.98 billion bbls
This is 4x larger than any supply outage in history.
There is no playbook for this.The cycle playing out right now:
↑ Crude prices
→ Compressed refining margins
→ Lower refined product output
→ Product storage draws
→ Higher margins again
→ Higher throughput
→ ↑ Crude prices again
Rinse. Repeat. Until something breaks.By end of July, US commercial crude storage could fall below 400M bbls — near operational minimum.
At that point, the Trump administration faces a binary choice:
Ban crude exports. Or watch US refineries shut down.
Neither option is good for markets.The only thing that “balances” this market now is demand destruction on the scale of COVID lockdowns.
Not lower prices. Not diplomacy.
Government mandates forcing people to use less fuel.
That’s the math. $95/bbl is not the answer.The last marginal barrel — the one that keeps a refinery running vs. shutting down —
What does it trade for?
Nobody knows. And that’s the most terrifying thing about this crisis.
What’s your number?
Let’s round this post out with a round up of news from the Gulf States and the Levant.
How Can Iraq Miss the U.S. If It Doesn’t Release The Funds?
Full tweet:
The United States has reportedly suspended all funding and security coordination with the Iraqi government and has halted dollar shipments to Iraq’s central banking system, according to Saudi channel Al-Hadath.
Washington says the suspension will remain in effect until a new Iraqi government is formed and Baghdad provides information on pro-Iranian militia members who have attacked U.S. targets in Iraq.
Iraq’s economy is 90% dependent on oil revenue paid in dollars into a Federal Reserve account in New York. Every month, Baghdad flies in $1-2 billion in cash from that account to pay salaries and conduct government functions. Cutting dollar access means the Iraqi government cannot operate—salaries go unpaid, the dinar collapses, and the state grinds to a halt.
Iraq is currently forming a new government after November 2025 elections. The U.S. threatened in January to suspend engagement if any of 58 pro-Iranian MPs were included in the cabinet. Now Trump is enforcing that ultimatum while Iraq remains paralyzed between Washington and Tehran.
Washington invaded Iraq, destroyed its economy, controls its oil revenue through the New York Fed, and is now starving the government until it picks a cabinet the White House approves.
Force Majeure Declares Kuwait
More on that UAE Request for Dollar Swaps?
Most people are missing the main point here. It’s not dedollarization as you’re going to hear all that people talking, ‘oh, they they threaten to turn over to the Chinese yuan if the if the US Treasury Department doesn’t accede to their demands.’
And of course, that’s nonsense, too. There are bigger implications here than just what most people are seem to be focusing on.
Dubai in particular in broader terms has become a major dollar hub for certainly emerging markets especially across Asia and the interruption of oil flow and let’s not forget tourism into those areas has disrupted dollars coming in which has the potential to disrupt dollars going out because when you become a major dollar hub what that means is it’s both directions.
You are a redistribution center for global dollar finance and therefore the implications are not strictly limited to the United Arab Emirates, Dubai and even just the Middle East in general especially when we consider how much the Asian part of the global economy is already suffering the downside of the interruption of oil flow and the macroeconomic consequences that are going to go with it. But there’s a lot more here than just those.
That’s I think what we what we’re really getting into are the second and third order implications that we’ve been talking about and worried about for quite some time.
So as we get to the second third order implications, it’s no longer strictly about oil prices or even fertilizer, the movement of food. Now we’re into financial monetary flows, potential dollar shortage along the lines of maybe 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
Israeli Soldier Smashes Jesus
It’s interesting which atrocities and war crimes get MSM attention in the West. Yesterday, one Israeli solider found out where the New York Times draws the line.
Israeli Soldier in Lebanon Sledgehammered a Statue of Jesus: The military is investigating the soldier. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed regret for any hurt caused to “believers in Lebanon and around the world.”
They’ve blown up how many ancient Christian churches, destroyed countless relics, blocked Christian services in Bethleham, etc. etc. etc. and this is the one that gets an apology out of Bibi? Who am I to question the ways of the dominant narrative?
Meanwhile, Bibi is grasping and seizing and taking care of business:
I’ll have to stop with that head scratcher and we’ll see what the new day brings to the Mad King and all the rest of us.
Stay safe, y’all.
Originally published at NakedCapitalism on April 21, 2026.