Iran War: TACO Tuesday Strikes Again, Trump Extends Ceasefire
Trump unilaterally extended the Iran War ceasefire despite Iran refusing to send a delegation to Islamabad for more negotiations.
Tuesday, POTUS Trump unilaterally extended the Iran War ceasefire despite Iran refusing to send a delegation to Islamabad for more negotiations.
Ah well, to make up for it, I’ll include some flagrant western disinformation campaigns, an explanation of how the Trump administration is manipulating energy markets, and a pair of videos arguing for and against the proposition that there is a method to America’s madness.
Let’s get to it.
Threats Exchanged to Start the Day
Trump opened the day with a phone interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernan, talking tough.
Note how Kernan opens the interview with a completely unfounded claim that Iran had agreed to send representatives to Islamabad for a Wednesday meeting with Vice-President J.D. Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff:
Joe Kernan: We now know Tehran has publicly confirmed that it will send representatives to the meeting with Vice President Vance. What do you expect?
Donald Trump: Well, as I said two days ago, when they said they won’t send them, I said they’ll be sending them. They have no choice but to send them.
What I think is that we’re going to end up with a great deal. I think it’s got I think they have no choice. We’ve taken out their navy, we’ve taken out their air force, we’ve taken out their leaders, frankly, which does complicate things in one way. But these leaders are much more rational.
It is regime change, no matter what you want to call it, which is not something I said I was going to do. But I’ve done it indirectly, maybe, but I’ve done it.
And I think we’re in a very strong negotiating position to do what other presidents should have done during a 47 year period.
Trump proceeds to make numerous specious claims (42,000 unarmed Iranian protestors killed in recent months, Iranian missile stocks destroyed, etc) that Kernan never challenges. Then Kernan drops this doozy before getting to the point:
Kernan: I know how much you respect and admire and are concerned with with the Iranian people themselves. And this is, I think, in large degree, one of the reasons you decided to embark on this, on this whole thing.
The deadline for the ceasefire is tomorrow, if it looks like things are progressing, Will you not necessarily extend it to to a definitive amount of time, but will you let it keep going? If there’s progress in the talks?
Trump: Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with. But we’re ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go. They are absolutely incredible.
It’s so infuriating to listen to this bilge. Any American who’s upset at being ruled by this mendacious freak should be just as enraged with our 100% propagandized corporate media that created and enables Trump.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant piled on with economic threats:
As POTUS has made clear, the United States Navy will continue the blockade of Iranian ports. In a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in. Constraining Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the regime’s primary revenue lifelines.
The USTreasury will continue to apply maximum pressure through Economic Fury to systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds.
Any person or vessel facilitating these flows—through covert trade and finance—risks exposure to U.S. sanctions.
We continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran.
Your mileage may vary, but my X.com feed featured some interesting responses to Bessant, embiggen to see the Iranian TV response at the bottom:
For those who believe Bessant and Trump that the mighty U.S. blockade is strangling Iran, here’s the Financial Times:
At least 34 tankers with links to Iran have bypassed the US blockade since it began, according to the cargo tracking group Vortexa, including several carrying Iranian oil — despite US President Donald Trump declaring the barricade a “tremendous success”.
A look at a map is helpful to better understand how porous the blockade is:
Iran’s Sass Game Remains Strong
For their part, Iranian spokespeople started the day with its representatives taking a firm line and issuing stern (and frankly terrifying) warnings:
Video showing Iranians celebrating, yes, celebrating, the end of the ceasefire was circulating widely:
Then it was reported that Vice-President J.D. Vance would not be traveling to Islamabad.
Amusingly, ultimate D.C. shill site Axios had reported that both the Iranian and American delegations were confirmed for the meetings. They’re always down to post what they’re told to post, I guess.
Things Get Real and TACOs Are Served
In response Mr. Market started bidding up the price of oil.
Then, Iran left Team Trump standing at the altar, Tasnim News via Iran Wire:
Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported on the evening of Monday, April 20, that Iran’s decision not to attend the negotiations in Pakistan remains unchanged, and that the Islamic Republic has no intention of participating in what it called an “American theater.”
Tasnim wrote that its correspondent’s information indicates that, despite Donald Trump’s claims that JD Vance and other members of the American negotiating team are on their way to Pakistan, there has been no change in Iran’s decision to abstain from the talks as of the time of publication. The agency added that Tehran’s participation is contingent upon the fulfillment of certain preconditions.
According to information cited by Tasnim, one of the primary obstacles to the talks is the issue of the naval blockade, a matter which, according to the report, has been communicated to the American side via the Pakistani intermediary, who stated that this issue has been shared with Trump.
At the same time, the report emphasized that, in addition to the naval blockade, a series of other demands have been raised by the United States, which, from Tehran’s perspective, do not provide a clear outlook for the negotiations.
Tasnim further wrote that until “some fundamental obstacles are removed, and a clear horizon is formed for reaching an agreement acceptable to Iran,” Tehran has no intention of participating in an “American theater.”
And that set the table for TACOs.
If It’s Tuesday, That Must Be a TACO
Maybe Susie Wiles let this little graphic slip into Trump’s infobubble or something:
Or maybe someone read this Pentagon report to him, via NBC:
A Pentagon intelligence agency assessment says Iran still has significant military capabilities.
U.S. intelligence is at odds with public declarations by President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who said the Iranian Air Force was “wiped out” and the Navy is “at the bottom of the sea.”
Because it was an epic climb down for Mr. Big, so much so that Luke Broadwater of the NY Times called it “a starkly different tone from the American president”:
Iranian Security Analyst Mahdi Mohammadi, who is to my understanding close to Iranian Parliamentary Speaker MB Ghalibaf
tweeted in response (translated by Grok):
Trump’s ceasefire extension means nothing. The losing side cannot dictate terms. The continuation of the siege is no different from bombardment and must be met with a military response. Moreover, Trump’s ceasefire extension is certainly a ploy to buy time for a surprise strike. The time for Iran to take the initiative has come.
CNN had some insights into Trump’s motivations (via Simplicius):
His ceasefire deadline was nearing its end, and Air Force Two was sitting on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews ahead of Vice President JD Vance’s scheduled departure to Pakistan for the next round of talks. But the administration was dealing with a conundrum: virtual silence from the Iranians.
In the days prior, the US had sent Iran a list of broad deal points that they wanted the Iranians to agree to in advance of the next round of talks. But days had gone by without the US getting a response…
Where Trump’s unilateral ceasefire declaration leaves the potential for kino, I’ll cite Will Schryver who lays out some possibilities:
And I’ll quote Simplicius who argues the war won’t go on because the U.S. can’t.
First he cites an alarming CNN report about the dramatic depletion of U.S. missile stocks, then he says:
As you can see, in only a couple short weeks the US fired thousands of its rarest and most valuable munitions, which are only produced at a trickle of a few dozen per year each.
…
What can we ourselves conclude…?That it can’t possibly be Iran that “folds first” because, at a production rate of only a few dozen per year, the US simply cannot afford to prolong the conflict much longer, lest it run its magazines completely dry and becomes exposed for all time. This is why we can only assume that Trump’s gasbag lecturing is nothing but inert bluffery meant to frighten an increasingly unvexed Iran into making concessions.
But before we get complacent, Patricia Marins warns Trump and Netanyahu still have cards to play and very few limits:
Four more cards remain in his hand: occupying ports, a new attempt to involve Gulf countries, opening Hormuz using destroyers, and, finally, tactical nuclear missiles.
Any of these options, seizing ports, freeing the strait with destroyers, or pulling in the Gulf countries, must be carefully evaluated because they all risk making the problem bigger instead of solving it.
In this situation, there will be many casualties, which could have two effects on American public opinion: either strong public condemnation of Trump’s actions or a national wave of support for the war, fueling a desire for revenge. It’s a very real risk.
…
That leaves the nuclear card. Although it is not publicly discussed yet, Iranian nuclear facilities have already been bombed multiple times, including one case where a projectile landed just 350 meters from a reactor. This makes me believe the coalition is already accepting the risk of a nuclear incident in Iran.We are therefore slowly moving toward tactical nuclear missiles, which are infinitely less dangerous than reactor explosions. And I’m very serious when I say this: Netanyahu would have both the rhetoric and the means to use this option if needed…
(Trump) and Netanyahu are political masters, yet their impulsivity prevents them from considering the long-term consequences of military actions. Because of this, they are ready to play any card at their disposal, a move that would destabilize the global economy and impact investments worldwide.
Enough scary speculation, let’s get to the unreality that actually already happened.
Trump Thrashes Around on Truth Social
The press response clearly got to Trump as he followed up with another Truth rant blasting the Wall Street Journal for having “lost its way.”
An IDIOT on The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board, named Elliot Kaufman, just wrote an Op Ed entitled, “The Iranians Take Trump for a Sucker.” Really? For 47 years, they have killed our people, and many others, and taken advantage of every President, except me — And what did I give to them, a Country in tatters!
…
I guess Rupert Murdoch told him to write it this way, because The Wall Street Journal has lost its way, no longer required reading, just another failing political “RAG!”
Now let’s follow another Trump Truth Social post into the wild world of disinformation.
After Trump Truth’d about 8 women allegedly set to be executed by the IRGC, people had questions (read the lower of the two tweets first):
All of this made me think of this Sam Biddle report from The Intercept that I meant to include in yesterday’s round up:
Al-Fassel and Pishtaz News look like typical news websites. They have neatly designed homepages and active social media accounts, where they share reporting and videos on Middle Eastern geopolitics in Arabic and Farsi, respectively, as well as English. Al-Fassel’s X account states the publication’s mission is “to investigate events of great significance that are often overlooked by local and regional media, and to shed light on them.” The Pishtaz News X account says it was established “to investigate and expand upon important news that local and regional media often overlook.”
These overlooked stories share the same ideological slant and editorial voice: that of the White House. Al-Fassel’s YouTube account, for instance, has racked up millions of views on Arabic-language videos praising the Trump administration’s Gaza policy and exhorting Hamas to cease “taking orders from the Iranian regime” and release Israeli prisoners. On Pishtaz News, a poll on the homepage recently asked: “[H]ow would you describe your belief about the Supreme Leader’s current health status and whereabouts?” Possible answers range from “In good health but hiding” to “Disfigured” or “Dead.” The excellence of Saudi and Emirati leadership, both close military partners of the U.S., is a recurring theme.
There’s a reason this coverage echoes American foreign policy talking points. Al-Fassel and Pishtaz News are, in fact, part of network of websites and social media accounts purporting to be legitimate Middle Eastern news outlets that are in fact propaganda mills funded by the United States government, The Intercept has found.
Disclosed only at the bottom of both sites behind an “About” link that is easily missed by casual readers, the outlets note that they are “a product of an international media organization publicly funded from the budget of the United States Government.” The government affiliation remains undisclosed on social media platforms including Instagram, despite a platform policy requiring the labeling of state-backed media outlet to prevent the unwitting consumption of government propaganda.
Nothing better to wash off the disinfo than some bracing reality.
Supply Shocks Spreading
The Middle East war has removed around 500 million barrels of oil supply (~$50B), with disruptions driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Global supply and inventories are tightening sharply, with production down by over 10 million bpd and stockpiles rapidly declining.
Even if Hormuz reopens, recovery could take months to years, keeping oil markets volatile and prices under upward pressure.
Many countries across the Asia-Pacific are experiencing sudden jolts of disruption that they are struggling to manage, with some comparing the crisis’s breakdowns and scope to the Covid pandemic.
Even if there is a peace deal soon, the future of this industrious region that has driven global economic growth for decades will likely include months of canceled flights, surging food prices, factory pauses, delayed shipments and empty shelves for products long considered quick and easy to buy worldwide: plastic bags, instant noodles, vaccines, syringes, lipstick, microchips and sportswear.
Collectively, according to many officials and experts, if the war’s strangling of commercial traffic through the Middle East lasts for even a few more weeks, and uncertainty lingers, shortages could push several countries into convulsions of unrest, followed by recession.
If that’s not bad enough, condom prices are expected to surge by 30%:
Karex CEO Goh Miah Kiat said the price of key raw materials, including aluminum, foil and silicone oil, has increased 25% to 30% since the start of the war nearly two months ago.
The Malaysia-based firm produces more than five billion condoms annually and is seeing demand outpace supply as shipping delays leave customers without product.
Karex says more inventory is stuck on vessels than reaching its destination, with some shipments taking up to two months to arrive to the U.S. and Europe, while developing countries already facing shortages are also seeing a delay in shipments.
The company is a major supplier for brands like Durex and Trojan, as well as public health systems such as the U.K.’s National Health Service and aid programs run by the United Nations.
Regional Roundup
Now let’s round up some other quick news hits before we get to the think pieces:
Hezbollah says it attacked Israel with drones, missiles in response to ceasefire violation Al Arabiya
IDF says Hezbollah breached truce by launching rockets at troops, drone at Israel Times of Israel
Israeli soldiers using sexual assault to force Palestinians out of West Bank The Guardian
Israeli Soldiers Are Sentenced to Jail for Damaging Jesus Statue in Lebanon New York Times
China ‘caught red-handed’ over alleged Iran missile-linked chemical shipment Fox News
Gulf worries US-Iran talks may cement Tehran’s ‘golden’ grip on Hormuz Reuters (Archived)
Iraq Turns to Risky Overland Routes as Oil Exports Collapse Oil Price
Qatar Moves To Forge Defense Pact With Pakistan The Defense Watch
Pakistan, Qatar and the Limits of a Security Pact Birol Baskan
The Saudi-Pakistani Defense Pact and U.S. Force Posture in the Gulf Dr. F. Gregory Gause, Georgetown University
So There’s Like Totally a Master Plan
I’ll set this up with some tweets about the mysterious spate of oil refinery fires getting social media attention (anyone know if this is an unusual number of such fires over a two month period?).
https://twitter.com/PeterCronau/status/2046465327014486115
The above video by Richard Medhurst has gotten almost 200K views in 11 days. He makes a bold claim and backs it up with lots of information and a well-formulated argument:
Richard Medhurst: In the background, the United States have quietly been carrying out an armed robbery of the world’s oil and gas supply. In the last 3 months alone, the US have hit Russian tankers, refineries, crippled China’s oil supply, captured the world’s largest oil fields, and kidnapped and assassinated two heads of state. We are witnessing the transition of the United States from an empire into a pirate state and the birth of what I call the pro gas dollar or the LNG dollar.
I trust Medhurst’s reporting, but like Brian Berletic, he is so wary of the evil empire that sometimes he may see intention where there is only floundering.
Which is what Greg Stoker and Elina Xenophontos argue in the video below.
Greg Stoker: The US government is playing 1D checkers, not 3D transdimensional chess. There is no master plan at play to maintain the petro dollar via implementing a global energy blockade and strangling China etc.
There is no plan which is why the US is sending another 10,000 service members to the region as a third carrier strike group attached to the USS George HW Bush is sailing around Africa…There is this idea floating around that the US given its intervention in Venezuela, the blockade of Cuba, the interception of Russian tankers in international waters in the Arctic regions, the closing of the Straight of Hormuz, strikes on Gulf infrastructure during this war is all part of some imperial master plan to effectuate a global oil blockade in order to preserve the petro dollar or morph it into like the pro LNG dollar.
Elina Xenophontos: It’s very important to break it down for people to understand where there’s merit and where there’s no merit to it because the reality of the situation is the United States doesn’t have a grand strategy like this. They have certain objectives but we should distinguish between their so-called objectives and the material reality of what’s actually occurring.
Also there’s the whole issue of the “petrodollar” being a bit of a myth.
As Yves wrote a few years back:
Even though the dollar is set to lose its dominant position due to the US no longer being the top economic dog (and the US giving other countries ample incentive to move away via our abuse of the power of controlling the dollar payments system), monetary regime changes take a very long time to play out. It took forty years, including two world wars and a global depression, to dethrone pound sterling. And now we have more significant frictions to changing monetary regimes in the form of the amount of computer coding behind current systems, and the depth and complexity of dollar financial instruments and investment vehicles.
I should also mention that Alon Mizrahi has managed to reclaim his Substack account after it was hacked and hijacked earlier this week.
I’ll close with this video featuring Luke Groman explaining Scott Bessant’s oil market manipulations and the risk these ploys incur of destroying faith in the U.S. commodities markets as a means of price discovery.
Originally published at NakedCapitalism on April 22, 2026.