Texas Primary Results Could Flip US Senate
Yesterday’s Texas primary election results (and a smattering from other states) illustrate an ongoing realignment in the Democratic party
Yesterday’s Texas primary election results (and a smattering from other states) illustrate an ongoing realignment in the Democratic party and give Dems reason to hope they will claim a majority in the US Senate in November.
Caveats: Does the Senate Matter in an Age of Caligula?
Let me introduce this piece with two caveats.
One, the US Congress (both the Senate and the House of Representatives) are barely performing their minimum Constitutional duties, merely threatening to vote to reign in Trump’s war of choice on Iran, failing to impeach, etc.
Secondly, it’s entirely possible that POTUS Trump will attempt to disrupt the 2026 midterm elections.
As it was, the Texas GOP pulled some shenanigans that may have hurt Crockett in Dallas, although she has conceded the race, regardless.
But as long as we know we’re talking kayfabe as much as we’re talking kino, the election results are quality infotainment at a minimum and might actually have real-world impacts.
Texas Senate Race Set to Be Most Competitive Since 2018
The important thing to note is the primary vote totals. Talarico and Crockett earned over 2.2 million votes in the Democratic primary where Cornyn, Paxton and third-place Wes Hunt earned 2.05 million votes.
For comparison, in 2018 Beto O’Rourke and two opponents earned just over 1 million Dem primary votes and Ted Cruz et al. earned over 1.5 million GOP primary votes.
2018 was the recent high-water mark for Dem performance in US Senate races when Beto O’Rourke came within 200,000 votes out of over 8 million cast against Ted Cruz.
This represents an enormous surge in Democratic voter turnout in Texas that bodes ill for the GOP in November.
It should be noted that more Democrats voted in the 2008 Presidential primary than GOPers voted in their contest but still won the state handily in the general.
The New York Times lets Kevin D. Williamson make the case for a competitive Texas electorate in a guest essay:
Yes, the state appears to be as red as red can be, but it is not deeply so — Mr. Trump’s 2020 performance in the state was slightly down from his 2016 performance, and even his comeback win in 2024 (taking just a bit more than 56 percent of the vote) was closer to his showing in Iowa (an even 56 percent) and well behind his romps in Oklahoma (66 percent), Alabama (65 percent) and West Virginia (70 percent). Texas is more closely divided than you might think.
That is in part because Texas is no longer entirely the land of “wide open spaces” but an increasingly urban state, home to six of the 25 largest cities in the country and two of the five largest metropolitan areas. Republicans do not typically fare well in urban areas — they haven’t won a mayoral election in Houston in more than 40 years.
Especially since all signs indicate Trump will be even less popular after a long hot summer.
G. Elliott Morris has a more quantitative analysis with a similar sunny-side-up vibe for Dem hopes:
Democrats have six things working in their favor: Potentially a very weak Republican nominee, a good Democratic recruit, a massive enthusiasm gap, a diversifying electorate, a Latino backlash against the GOP, and a president dragging his party underwater.
Yet on the other hand, Texas is a religious, conservative, crimson-red state where Democrats haven’t won statewide since 1994, and primary enthusiasm does not necessarily translate to November results. In 2008, Democrats cast two-thirds of primary ballots and then lost the state to McCain by 12.
But consider the 2018 baseline. Beto O’Rourke lost to Ted Cruz by just 2.6 points — the closest a Democrat had come to winning a Texas Senate seat in 40 years. He did it against a reasonably popular incumbent, in an environment where Trump’s approval in Texas was 48% — significantly better than where it sits now (45% approve, 49% disapprove). Cruz also arguably got a late boost from the SCOTUS confirmation hearings for Brett Kavanaugh that energized Republican voters right before the election.
So take the 2.6-point Republican margin, and now apply the Paxton penalty. If the political environment in 2026 is even comparable to 2018 — and the primary turnout data, special election results, and presidential approval numbers all suggest it could be as good or better for Democrats — then Paxton’s 2-3 point drag is the difference between another narrow loss and a win.
And then you can start to stack other favorable indicators on top of that baseline: Trump is losing independents by 47 points on approval; Democrats saw a 31-point swing in Tarrant County in January; Democratic primary turnout is up 274% vs 2022; and the Talarico nomination is a good match for Texas general election voters based on demographic patterns.
The Ballad of James vs. Jasmine
I covered US Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s last-minute entry into the primary for the Democratic nomination for US Senate in December.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) conducted a months-long push-poll campaign in an attempt to lure Crockett into the race.
When they succeeded, many in the GOP hoped they had saved the seat from the threat of the Lis Smith-backed State Rep. James Talarico.
Expectations were that, “(Crockett’s) nomination looked to be a fait accompli. With only three months left in the campaign, it seemed nigh-inevitable that a once-in-a-decade political opportunity would be completely squandered because Facebook-addicted liberals found it really funny when Crockett called Greg Abbot ‘Governor Hot Wheels.’”
Smith was the Svengali behind Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign.
In 2026, Smith adapted to the times and pushed Talarico into a far more populist direction and pulled off the upset.
Joshua A. Cohen of the Ettingermentum Newsletter described the campaign as between “James Talarico, a charismatic shape-shifting social media phenom running on a platform of inoffensive liberal populism” and “(Crockett who) proved to be a halting and ineffective campaigner, unable to address the most pressing questions around her bid.”
Talarico’s win is being attributed to his success with Hispanic and younger voters:
In the state’s heavily Latino areas, Talarico drew a dominant share of the vote. Across counties where the population is 60% or more Latino, Talarico outperformed Crockett roughly 63% to 34%, according to the Associated Press.
…
(Talarico) also forged alliances with key Latino candidates. In December, Talarico and Bobby Pulido, the Tejano singer and Democrat running to flip a South Texas congressional seat, endorsed each other in a joint rally in Weslaco, Texas. Pulido won his primary race on Tuesday night. In Hidalgo County, where Weslaco is located and Latinos make up 92% of the population, Talarico took 67% of the vote.
Talarico also leaned on Carlos Espina, a popular Spanish-language influencer with more than 14 million TikTok followers. Espina was on the campaign trail with Talarico for various stops across the state, including in Dallas and Houston, recorded videos championing Talarico and was featured in one of Talarico’s Spanish-language TV ads. Espina has become a go-to voice for Democratic candidates looking to connect with Latinos.
The GOP powers-that-be in DC, had hoped to see incumbent John Cornyn against Crockett in the general.
RINO vs MAGA Goes Into Overtime
Cornyn, a Bush-era relic, is commonly considered a Republican In Name Only (RINO) by much of the MAGA base that backs Paxton.
Trump, who has previously endorsed Paxton, has stayed out of the race so far an indication that White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles has Trump 2.0 on a short leash.
Unfortunately for them, Cornyn is in a run-off against often-indicted, never convicted state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
This paragraph from Politico sums up the Paxton story pretty well:
Paxton has survived an impeachment by the GOP-controlled state House, a federal securities fraud investigation and slew of ethics complaints. Three months after beginning his Senate campaign last year, Paxton’s wife filed for divorce, alleging an extramarital affair. His competitors — including Cornyn, who has said Paxton is too unethical to serve in public office — have hammered his trail of scandals.
But there’s a positive case for Paxton as well, per Politico:
Paxton’s deep base of support is built in part from his lawsuits against frequent targets of the right — high-profile cases that were splashed on the front pages of local newspapers from Beaumont to Amarillo. Throughout his decade as Texas’ top lawyer, Paxton oversaw the Lone Star State’s transformation into an incubator for ultra conservatives issues, from defending abortion restrictions to warning that Muslims will attempt to introduce Islamic law in Texas.
And Paxton’s lawsuits aren’t all wacky far-right red meat either:
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing five television manufacturers for “spying on Texans” through content recognition software.
Paxton cites ties to the Chinese Communist Party for some of the companies, implying the government the corporations are based in could be using Texans’ data for nefarious purposes.
Well, maybe not ALL wacky.
This AP map shows that Paxton (pink) dominated rural Texas where Cornyn (red) won in the urban areas of the state:
Paxton is favored in the run-off, but he’s an underdog in polling against Talarico, per Politico: “Public and private polls have mostly shown close races in either matchup; Talarico would start off with the edge over Paxton but trail Cornyn.”
Trump Demands Right to Declare Winner
And it’s not going over well with some on the right:
One Problem: Unifying the Dem Party
There are indications Jasmine Crockett won’t be a team player in the general election:
On the other hand, Crockett’s district has new representation:
Frederick Haynes III has won the Democratic nomination for Texas’ 30th Congressional District — a seat currently occupied by outgoing congresswoman Jasmine Crockett.
The Associated Press called the race for Haynes just after 10:15 p.m. Tuesday. In his campaign kickoff, he emphasized health care for all, economic equality and abolishing ICE as priorities.
Haynes — a pastor and longtime activist for racial justice and civil rights — was endorsed by Crockett, as well as Tarrant County Commissioner Alisa Simmons and Kirk Johnson, son of Eddie Bernice Johnson. Johnson represented District 30 for three decades before Crockett.
The pastor has led Friendship-West Baptist Church in southern Dallas for more than 40 years, and was the hand-picked successor of civil rights icon Jesse Jackson to lead the Rainbow PUSH Coalition, the social justice organization founded by Jackson. But Haynes unexpectedly stepped down as President and CEO of the coalition after just months on the job.
Tuesday’s contest was prompted by Crockett’s decision to run for the U.S. Senate, creating a rare opportunity in one of Texas’ safest Democratic districts.
AIPAC isn’t happy about this man being sent to Congress:
Democratic Primary Realignment
Big picture wise, the pundits are seeing a trend.
The mainstreamers at Axios see it as a brush-fire rebellion that’s upsetting D.C.:
An expensive Democratic civil war is brewing this election cycle, with a staggering 30 House Democrats facing at least one primary challenger who has raised $100,000 or more, an Axios analysis found.
These primaries are drawing tens of millions of dollars from Democrats’ efforts to retake the House while priming House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to inherit a rebellious class of new freshmen.
The collective fundraising in these races adds up to more than $64 million — out of roughly $500 million raised by all Democratic House campaigns so far this cycle.
Nearly a dozen House Democrats are facing primary challengers who have raised more money than they have.
Many of these primary insurgents — along with a huge cohort of outsiders and progressives running in open primaries — have declined to commit to supporting Jeffries’ leadership if elected.
…
A House Democrat close to leadership, speaking on the condition of anonymity, griped to Axios: “This is the new reality we live in, where people do not care about the party and trying to win.”“They just care about moving their ideological wing of the party forward,” the anonymous Democrat said.
Between the lines: Unlike in past cycles, it’s not simply a clash of the left versus the center.
Many of the incumbents who are facing the fiercest primary challenges are over 70 years old, with younger rivals calling for generational change.
Progressive Michael Lange has a slightly different take in his piece “The Democratic Primary Realignment: ‘It’s not left vs. right. It’s top vs. bottom.’”
…in the pre-midterm vacuum, two riveting and high-profile contests have stood out, defined by scores of national attention, record voter turnout, massive campaign spending, expanded electorates, and an incredibly diverse coalition of Democratic voters: the 2025 New York City Mayoral Primary and the 2026 Texas Senate Primary.
…there are remarkable similarities in how Talarico and Mamdani ran their underdog campaigns, compared with how Crockett and Cuomo — frontrunners flush with name recognition — failed to capitalize on their pronounced early advantages. These nuances, not explicitly ideological, translated into how their coalitions manifested: Crockett’s base (older, Black) mirrored Cuomo’s, whereas Talarico’s coalition (younger, college-educated, White, Hispanic, lower-propensity) is reminiscent of Mamdani’s.
Mamdani and Talarico combined style and substance. They consistently released algorithm-oriented vertical videos, becoming omnipresent in the feeds of younger voters.
…
most important to the Democratic Party, this fusion of style (everyman ethos) and substance (positive populism) produced a remarkably similar voter coalition. The Texas equivalent of the “Commie Corridor” is Travis County (the Austin metro area), flush with college-educated Gen Z renters and higher-income Gen X suburbanites, who mirror the class and educational attainment of Brownstone Brooklyn.Talarico won 76% of the vote in Travis County, eclipsing 90% in precincts adjacent to the University of Texas, while earning more than 80% in tonier Westlake Hills, where the median home price exceeds one million dollars.
Given Crockett’s pronounced advantage with Black voters and Talarico’s strength with White voters, the swing demographic in the Texas Senate Primary was Hispanic voters, who are disproportionately young and working-class.
And, while Talarico won Hispanic Texans by a greater margin than Mamdani won Hispanic New Yorkers, the symmetry is strengthened by the details: the Hispanic electorate in Texas, particularly in the counties handily won by Talarico (Hidalgo, Webb, Cameron, El Paso), is among the youngest in the United States (99th percentile for Gen-Alpha, 96th percentile for Gen-Z)…
Nonetheless, absent a pronounced advantage among middle-class White suburbanites, Talarico would not have prevailed.
David Sirota at The Lever is celebrating a new era in Dem politics:
A decade after Bernie Sanders almost tore the presidential nomination out of the decrepit hands of the Democratic establishment, the party’s old guard, ancient political formulas, and outdated corporate politics seem to finally be facing a moment of comeuppance. The long-overdue reckoning appears to be happening not just in a few predictably liberal locales, but across varied swaths of the country that seem ready to embrace populist politics.
First, it was Zohran Mamdani’s underdog mayoral victory against the billionaire class in the capital of global finance. Then it was Bernie Sanders’ former staffer, Analilia Mejia, winning an affluent New Jersey suburb that had once been the territory of country-club Republicans. Now this week, it is James Talarico running an explicitly anti-billionaire, anti-corruption campaign to win the Democratic Senate nomination in Texas.
…
Whether or not any of these particular candidates are true believers or ideologues doesn’t really matter – if politicians are more thermometers than thermostats, then what matters is that this new crop of politicians realize the temperature has changed, and understand their success lies in a very different kind of politics than the Democratic Party has been mired in.
Sirota then brings up a debate between surging Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner and the Obama-ites of the Pod Save America podcast that’s worth a glance.
Jon Favreau:Where specifically has the party gone wrong in the last decade in terms of policies, decisions, positions?
Graham Platner: Absolutely, the financial crisis, bailing out the banks, bailing out the big industries, letting people walk away with golden parachutes, while those banks still turned around and foreclosed on people’s homes, while the average working person saw their retirement savings just disappear. And then we watched the political apparatus back up the people that broke the thing in the first place. I think that was huge. That broke a lot of trust.
Favreau: I was in the White House. We sort of knew that this was going to happen. We walk into the White House.
Bush had already done the the bailout. And we can’t really undo it at that point because we can’t let the banks fail because the whole system goes under and we make sure that the banks pay all the money back with interest, right?
The executives get away with the golden parachutes and I remember trying to talk to Larry Summers about it and he’s like ‘It’s contract law. We can’t claw back the bonuses. Like that’s illegal.’
And I’m like, ‘Okay, we talk about contract law, but there’s like people with pitchforks outside the White House, right?’
We’re same thing with like, ‘Why didn’t anyone go to jail?’
Well, the laws aren’t there. The DOJ won’t prosecute because the laws aren’t there. And obviously, we can’t direct the DOJ to do anything anyway.
Platner: I mean people should have gone to prison.
Iceland put people in prison.
The Trump administration’s happy to abuse the Justice Department and send them after folks. They send them after like Comey because he hurt Trump’s feelings.
I honestly don’t think the American people would be angry if the Justice Department went after folks that destroyed their retirement savings or kicked their neighbors out of their homes.
Favreau: I assume we want to make sure the Justice Department only goes after people who actually broke the law.
Platner: We still need to pass the law. But that’s the other thing. We need people in the Senate and the House who want to pass these laws and also frankly put enforcement mechanisms in place.
That’s one of our biggest problems right now. We got lots of laws, but then they get broken. I mean the Trump administration breaks the law every day and then a lot of people just stand around like, well, what do we do?
Back to Sirota’s analysis:
Taken together, (Platner and Talarico) are rejecting the Obama/Clinton notion that Democratic politicians’ job is to be a bulwark standing between oligarchs and their victims. In a country whose largest swing electoral bloc is anti-system voters, these candidates’ primary campaigns are tapping into the anger of Democrats who finally — belatedly — realize that their party leaders have too often turned hope and change into more of the same, which has played a role in creating the meltdown we’re now living through.
And in telling taboo truths in blunt language, this faction is effectively acknowledging that the ongoing refusal by Democratic Party leaders, pundits, operatives, and influencers to be honest and principled has created the party’s biggest political problem of all — one that goes unspoken.
I hope I haven’t filled any readers with false optimism, but hope is, after all, the thing with feathers and all that.
And besides, as much as I love the Belle of Amherst, my favorite 19th Century poem is this one by Walt Whitman:
To those who’ve fail’d, in aspiration vast,
To unnam’d soldiers fallen in front on the lead,
To calm, devoted engineers- to over-ardent travelers- to pilots on
their ships,
To many a lofty song and picture without recognition- I’d rear
laurel-cover’d monument,
High, high above the rest- To all cut off before their time,
Possess’d by some strange spirit of fire,
Quench’d by an early death.
If ya gotta go down, go down fighting.